Interpreting Monsoon 2019

Introduction:-

The monsoon in India occurs from month of June through September every year. However, monsoon makes a huge impact on economic, travel, agricultural and environmental sectors in India. Monsoon season is  particularly devastating for the Indian regions where normal life witness major disruptions in maximum states of India. Mainly metropolitan cities are affected during monsoon every year. Water logging, flooding, Travel disruptions and infrastructure outages like issues affects many business organizations. During  the monsoon season there are possible chances of employee and asset endangerment. Monsoons are becoming less predictable, which is why organizations in affected areas should be considering them in their preparedness plans. Planning business operations around monsoon season can help prevent infrastructure damage, personal injuries, continuity disruptions and also shorten recovery periods.

Prognosticated monsoon reports (2019):-

  • Considering the slow progress of monsoon, Southwest monsoon 2019 would make onset over Kerala on June 4. Present weather conditions are indicating Monsoon onset would be now around June 7. Weather systems will be exhausted during June 1 and 2, which will clear the way for the monsoon to become necessary weather conditions. There are also significant signs of cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea around June 6. By that time there is also a possibility of becoming a cyclone area on the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep Islands.
  • The Southwest monsoon 2019 to be below normal at 93% of the LPA (Long Period Average of June, July, August and September (JJAS) — 887 mm) with an error margin of +/-5%.
  • Rainfall in East and Northeast India the rainiest pocket in the country during the Southwest Monsoon is 92% of the LPA, while in Central India, which stands second in terms of monsoon rain, the probability of rainfall is 91%. In the other two pockets of Northwest India and the Southern Peninsula, the prospect of rain is 91% and 95%, respectively. As per metrological departments the average rainfall will be between 96% and 104% for the entire four-month season beginning from the month of June.
  • Scattered rain is being expected over South Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan & Goa, South Chhattisgarh, North Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe (Pudducherry) may witness isolated rains from June 7 to June 9.
  • Light to moderate rain will occur in parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and parts of Punjab. Isolated dust storm activity followed by light rain may also occur over Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.
  • A cyclonic wind is being observed over southern interior Karnataka and adjacent parts of the state due to which the intensity of rain is expected to increase in places like Bengaluru, parts of Kerala and other parts of Karnataka (especially the south interior and coastal parts) within June 7.
  • Moderate intensity rainfall is being expected over southern parts of Odisha coast including Koraput ,Malkangiri and few parts of West Bengal like Kolkata, 24 North Parganas, 24 South Parganas, Malda and Murshidabad.
  • According to the metrological department Pune district and city might experience partly cloudy conditions, thunder activity and light rainfall from June 6th to June 8th
  • According to the metrological department, due to the impact of upper air circulation in west central Bay of Bengal near north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast, the Andhra states are receiving rainfall. The metrological departments have also generated warning for thunderstorm accompanied by gusty winds of 30-40 km per hour from June 7.
  • According to the metrological department, a cyclonic circulation is persisting over Bangladesh due to which rain will continue over the northeastern states of India along with parts of West Bengal, Sikkim, East Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha.
  • Following to past monsoon reports there are unpretentious prediction of water logging, flooding, travel disruptions for metropolitans cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Ahmadabad, Pune, Surat, Vishakhapatnam, Kolkata, Kanpur and many other cities
  • On the probabilities of normal, below normal, drought or excess rain, the following figures are the assessment of Meteorological department
  1. 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA) – This indicates there will be 0% chance of excess rainfall during this monsoon which will be above 110% of long period average.
  2. 0% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)- This indicates that there will be 0% of above normal category rainfall during monsoon, which is witnessed during starting period of monsoon season. and average rainfall will be 105 to 110% of long period average.
  3. 30% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)- This indicates that there is 30% chance of normal rainfall which is witnessed every year during monsoon which will be between 96 to 104% of long period average.
  4. 55% chance of below and chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)- This indicates that 55% chance of below and below normal rainfall with low intensity which is between 90 to 95% of long period average.
  5. 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)- This indicates that seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of long period average so there are 15% chances of drought like situation.

 

High Tides during Monsoon 2019:-

  • In Mumbai, disaster management cell declares high tide days for Monsoon 2019. High tide alert issued for 28 days during June to September 2019 when sea level will be above 4.5 meters. The highest tide will be of 4.91 meters on September 1, 2019.
  • In Goa, High tide alert is issued for 17 days for month of June 2019.
  • In Chennai, a very high level tides are predicted from July 31- August 3 2019 and August 29- September 1, 2019.
  • In Gujarat, high tide alert is issued for following places :- Abrama, Jamnagar, Parnera, Amreli, Jodiya Bandar, Porbandar,Anand, Junagadh, Rajula,Bedi, Kachchh, Ranavav,Bharuch, Kandla, Salaya, Bhavnagar, Katpur, Sikka, Bilimora, Khambhat, Surat, Delvada, Kodinar, Talaja, Dhuwaran, Mandvi, Tapi, Dwarka, Mangrol, Una, Gandhidham, Mundra, Valsad, Gandhinagar, Navsari, Vapi, Ghogha, Okha, Veraval, Hansot, Olpad, Jalalpur and Pardi
  • All other coastal areas bordering Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal are kept under alert for high tides during Monsoon 2019 by disaster management cell.

 

 Monsoon impact analysis during past years:-

Impact in 2018

  • The deluge and rains had hit 26 districts in Maharashtra, 22 in West Bengal, 21 in Assam, 14 in Kerala, 10 in Gujarat and a large part of Uttar Pradesh so far.
  • In Assam, 10.17 lakh people were borne the brunt of rains and floods.
  • In Gujarat, 15,912 people were being hit by floods and rains.
  • In Kerala, the flood had impacted 1.49 lakh people. The state registered 126 deaths due to heavy rains.
  • 139 people have died in Maharashtra and 117 people were injured during heavy rains in 2018
  • Apart from the 70 deaths, 68 people were injured due to rain-related incidents in Uttar Pradesh.

 

Impact 2017

  • Following heavy rain in July 2017, the Indian state of Gujarat was affected by severe flooding.
  • The floods were reported to have caused total 224 deaths between 1 June and 31 July 2017.  Northeast India floods were caused by overflowing of Brahmaputra river in the state of Assam in July 2017 affecting four Indian states: Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur.
  • August 2017 in Mumbai. Transport systems were unavailable through parts of the city as trains and roadways were shut. Power was shut off from various parts of the city to prevent electrocution.
  • 2017 the wettest year for Bengaluru city. Many parts of city were hit by flash floods. 16 deaths were recorded during this floods.
  • Severe water logging was reported from Chandrayangutta, Engine Bowli, Bahadurpura, Edi Bazaar and other areas of Hyderabad in 2017.
  • Following heavy rain in July and August 2017, the Indian state of West Bengal was affected by severe flooding. The floods were reported to have caused 50 deaths since 1 August and 8 deaths in the neighboring state of Jharkhand.

 

Impact 2016

  • Kerala experienced landfall during the monsoon season in the year 2016. 1 person died due to heavy rain.
  • Rainfall triggered landslides in parts of Uttarakhand in 2016. Around 30 people from different areas of the state died due to cloudburst and many homes were also destroyed in Singhali area of the state.
  • Around 291,000 people were affected by flood across nine districts of Assam. Bongigain, Golaghat, Jorhat and Dhemaji districts were the worst affected parts.
  • Around 119 people died and 150,000 people sheltered in 162 relief camps in Bihar due to flood.
  • 11 people died due to flood in Telangana and over 1,000 people have been evacuated in several districts of the state.
  • India witnessed a normal monsoon in 2016 but only after two back-to-back poor monsoons in 2014 and 2015 that affected the overall growth in the country.

 

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